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2010 Senate · KY

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-27 (6 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 53%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.25% · Republican 55.73%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 53 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.248 − 55.727 = -11.479
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-11.479) = -0.522
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.522| = 0.522

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32722, race ID 1523 (538 database).