Skip to content

2010 House · CT-5

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 595 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.02% · Republican 44.91%

D+7.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.015 − 44.914 = 7.101
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (7.101) = -8.100
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.100| = 8.100

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32714, race ID 4545 (538 database).