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2010 Governor · CT

MRG Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 1,846 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 45%

even

The certified result

Democrat 47.21% · Republican 48.95%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 45 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.213 − 48.950 = -1.737
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-1.737) = 1.737
  4. Absolute miss = |1.737| = 1.737

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32714, race ID 1280 (538 database).