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2010 Senate · OR

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 42%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.22% · Republican 39.25%

D+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 42 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.224 − 39.249 = 17.975
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (17.975) = -6.975
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.975| = 6.975

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32713, race ID 1536 (538 database).