2010 Senate · DE
Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 797 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 36%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.61% · Republican 40.03%
D+16.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 36 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 56.607 − 40.030 = 16.577
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (16.577) = 4.423
- Absolute miss = |4.423| = 4.423
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32711, race ID 1513 (538 database).