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2010 Governor · PA

Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · fieldwork ended 2010-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 460 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 52%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 54.49%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 52 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.511 − 54.489 = -8.978
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-8.978) = -6.023
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.023| = 6.023

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32709, race ID 1301 (538 database).