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2010 Senate · OH

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 613 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 52%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 52 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-17.442) = 2.442
  4. Absolute miss = |2.442| = 2.442

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32707, race ID 1534 (538 database).