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2010 Senate · NV

Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 773 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 49%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.29% · Republican 44.55%

D+5.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 49 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.289 − 44.547 = 5.742
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (5.742) = -9.742
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.742| = 9.742

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32702, race ID 1528 (538 database).