2010 Senate · KY
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 785 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 50%
R+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.25% · Republican 55.73%
R+11.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 50 = -7.00
- Actual margin = 44.248 − 55.727 = -11.479
- Signed miss = -7.00 − (-11.479) = 4.478
- Absolute miss = |4.478| = 4.478
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32701, race ID 1523 (538 database).