2010 Governor · CO
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 829 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 10%
D+41.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.05% · Republican 11.14%
D+39.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 10 = 41.00
- Actual margin = 51.052 − 11.142 = 39.910
- Signed miss = 41.00 − (39.910) = 1.090
- Absolute miss = |1.090| = 1.090
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32700, race ID 1279 (538 database).