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2010 Governor · PA

Franklin & Marshall College Center for Opinion Research · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 489 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 51%

R+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 54.49%

R+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 51 = -16.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.511 − 54.489 = -8.978
  3. Signed miss = -16.00 − (-8.978) = -7.023
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.023| = 7.023

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32685, race ID 1301 (538 database).