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2010 House · IN-3

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 400 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 57%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 33.11% · Republican 62.76%

R+29.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 57 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 33.109 − 62.762 = -29.653
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-29.653) = 4.653
  4. Absolute miss = |4.653| = 4.653

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32681, race ID 4610 (538 database).