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2010 Governor · MD

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 42%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.24% · Republican 41.78%

D+14.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.245 − 41.785 = 14.460
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (14.460) = -4.460
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.460| = 4.460

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32679, race ID 1293 (538 database).