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2010 Senate · OH

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 686 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 53%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 53 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-17.442) = 0.442
  4. Absolute miss = |0.442| = 0.442

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32674, race ID 1534 (538 database).