2010 Governor · CT
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 702 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 43%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.21% · Republican 48.95%
R+1.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 47.213 − 48.950 = -1.737
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (-1.737) = 6.737
- Absolute miss = |6.737| = 6.737
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32671, race ID 1280 (538 database).