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2010 Senate · WV

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.40%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.469 − 43.403 = 10.066
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (10.066) = -12.066
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.066| = 12.066

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32669, race ID 1543 (538 database).