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2010 Senate · OH

WPA Intelligence · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 49%

R+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.40% · Republican 56.85%

R+17.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 49 = -11.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.404 − 56.846 = -17.442
  3. Signed miss = -11.00 − (-17.442) = 6.442
  4. Absolute miss = |6.442| = 6.442

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32663, race ID 1534 (538 database).