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2010 House · ID-2

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 17% · Republican 67%

R+50.0

The certified result

Democrat 24.41% · Republican 68.83%

R+44.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 17 − 67 = -50.00
  2. Actual margin = 24.409 − 68.831 = -44.422
  3. Signed miss = -50.00 − (-44.422) = -5.578
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.578| = 5.578

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32661, race ID 4588 (538 database).