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2010 Governor · WI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-25 (8 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 52%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.48% · Republican 52.25%

R+5.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 52 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.478 − 52.246 = -5.768
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-5.768) = -4.232
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.232| = 4.232

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32658, race ID 1309 (538 database).