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2010 Senate · AZ

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-23 (10 days before the election) · 664 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38% · Republican 56%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.65% · Republican 58.86%

R+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38 − 56 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.651 − 58.860 = -24.209
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-24.209) = 6.209
  4. Absolute miss = |6.209| = 6.209

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32656, race ID 1508 (538 database).