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2010 Senate · FL

Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 802 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 18% · Republican 40%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 18 − 40 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-28.697) = 6.697
  4. Absolute miss = |6.697| = 6.697

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32650, race ID 1514 (538 database).