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2010 Senate · ND

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-21 (12 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 72%

R+47.0

The certified result

Democrat 22.20% · Republican 76.17%

R+54.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 72 = -47.00
  2. Actual margin = 22.200 − 76.169 = -53.969
  3. Signed miss = -47.00 − (-53.969) = 6.969
  4. Absolute miss = |6.969| = 6.969

The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32649, race ID 1533 (538 database).