Skip to content

2010 Senate · IN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 52%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.00% · Republican 54.58%

R+14.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 52 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.999 − 54.579 = -14.580
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-14.580) = -3.420
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.420| = 3.420

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32648, race ID 1520 (538 database).