2010 Governor · OH
University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 839 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 49%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.04% · Republican 49.04%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 47.036 − 49.038 = -2.002
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.002) = 0.002
- Absolute miss = |0.002| = 0.002
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32644, race ID 1299 (538 database).