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2010 House · IN-7

EPIC-MRA · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 37%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 58.90% · Republican 37.81%

D+21.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 37 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 58.896 − 37.807 = 21.089
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (21.089) = -8.089
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.089| = 8.089

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32640, race ID 4614 (538 database).