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2010 Senate · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-22 (11 days before the election) · 818 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 47%

even

The certified result

Democrat 48.05% · Republican 46.42%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 47 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.050 − 46.422 = 1.628
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (1.628) = -1.628
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.628| = 1.628

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32639, race ID 1511 (538 database).