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2010 Governor · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-22 (11 days before the election) · 818 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 5%

D+42.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.05% · Republican 11.14%

D+39.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 5 = 42.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.052 − 11.142 = 39.910
  3. Signed miss = 42.00 − (39.910) = 2.090
  4. Absolute miss = |2.090| = 2.090

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32639, race ID 1279 (538 database).