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2010 Senate · WV

Global Strategy Group · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 804 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 43%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.47% · Republican 43.40%

D+10.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 43 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.469 − 43.403 = 10.066
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (10.066) = -5.066
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.066| = 5.066

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32634, race ID 1543 (538 database).