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2010 Senate · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 3,277 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 55.8%

R+20.8

The certified result

Democrat 39.00% · Republican 58.31%

R+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 55.8 = -20.80
  2. Actual margin = 38.999 − 58.307 = -19.308
  3. Signed miss = -20.80 − (-19.308) = -1.491
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.491| = 1.491

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32633, race ID 1515 (538 database).