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2010 Governor · GA

Landmark Communications · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 3,277 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 38.9% · Republican 47%

R+8.1

The certified result

Democrat 42.97% · Republican 53.02%

R+10.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 38.9 − 47 = -8.10
  2. Actual margin = 42.971 − 53.018 = -10.047
  3. Signed miss = -8.10 − (-10.047) = 1.947
  4. Absolute miss = |1.947| = 1.947

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32633, race ID 1282 (538 database).