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2010 Governor · NY

Marist College · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 505 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 37%

D+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.71% · Republican 27.04%

D+27.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 37 = 23.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.709 − 27.042 = 27.667
  3. Signed miss = 23.00 − (27.667) = -4.667
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.667| = 4.667

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32631, race ID 1298 (538 database).