2010 Senate · CT
Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 57% · Republican 39%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.48% · Republican 43.22%
D+9.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 57 − 39 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 52.484 − 43.217 = 9.267
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (9.267) = 8.733
- Absolute miss = |8.733| = 8.733
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32626, race ID 1512 (538 database).