2010 Senate · PA
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-15 (18 days before the election) · 1,046 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 48%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.99% · Republican 51.01%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 48.992 − 51.008 = -2.016
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-2.016) = 0.017
- Absolute miss = |0.017| = 0.017
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32623, race ID 1537 (538 database).