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2010 Senate · NY

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 33%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 59.65% · Republican 28.13%

D+31.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 33 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 59.645 − 28.130 = 31.515
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (31.515) = -10.515
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.515| = 10.515

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32622, race ID 1531 (538 database).