2010 Senate · CA
Public Policy Institute of California · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 1,067 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 43% · Republican 38%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.18% · Republican 42.17%
D+10.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 43 − 38 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 52.184 − 42.173 = 10.011
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (10.011) = -5.011
- Absolute miss = |-5.011| = 5.011
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32620, race ID 1510 (538 database).