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2010 Senate · MO

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-19 (14 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.63% · Republican 54.23%

R+13.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.626 − 54.229 = -13.603
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-13.603) = 4.603
  4. Absolute miss = |4.603| = 4.603

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32617, race ID 1527 (538 database).