2010 Governor · OH
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 863 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 48% · Republican 47%
D+1.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.04% · Republican 49.04%
R+2.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 48 − 47 = 1.00
- Actual margin = 47.036 − 49.038 = -2.002
- Signed miss = 1.00 − (-2.002) = 3.002
- Absolute miss = |3.002| = 3.002
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32615, race ID 1299 (538 database).