2010 Senate · FL
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 798 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 20% · Republican 46%
R+26.0
The certified result
Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%
R+28.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 20 − 46 = -26.00
- Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
- Signed miss = -26.00 − (-28.697) = 2.697
- Absolute miss = |2.697| = 2.697
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32613, race ID 1514 (538 database).