2010 Governor · AR
Big Village · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 809 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 35%
D+27.0
The certified result
Democrat 64.42% · Republican 33.63%
D+30.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 35 = 27.00
- Actual margin = 64.420 − 33.633 = 30.787
- Signed miss = 27.00 − (30.787) = -3.787
- Absolute miss = |-3.787| = 3.787
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32611, race ID 1277 (538 database).