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2010 Senate · OR

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 1,229 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 40%

D+16.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.22% · Republican 39.25%

D+18.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 40 = 16.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.224 − 39.249 = 17.975
  3. Signed miss = 16.00 − (17.975) = -1.975
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.975| = 1.975

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32597, race ID 1536 (538 database).