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2010 Senate · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 20% · Republican 43%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 20 − 43 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-28.697) = 5.697
  4. Absolute miss = |5.697| = 5.697

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32593, race ID 1514 (538 database).