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2010 Senate · KY

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-18 (15 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 47%

R+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.25% · Republican 55.73%

R+11.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.248 − 55.727 = -11.479
  3. Signed miss = -5.00 − (-11.479) = 6.478
  4. Absolute miss = |6.478| = 6.478

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32589, race ID 1523 (538 database).