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2010 Senate · FL

Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 22% · Republican 39%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 22 − 39 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-28.697) = 11.697
  4. Absolute miss = |11.697| = 11.697

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32588, race ID 1514 (538 database).