2010 Governor · FL
Suffolk University · fieldwork ended 2010-10-16 (17 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 38%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.72% · Republican 48.87%
R+1.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 38 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 47.722 − 48.871 = -1.149
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-1.149) = 8.148
- Absolute miss = |8.148| = 8.148
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32588, race ID 1281 (538 database).