Skip to content

2010 Senate · HI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-13 (20 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 40%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 74.81% · Republican 21.57%

D+53.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 40 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 74.809 − 21.571 = 53.238
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (53.238) = -40.237
  4. Absolute miss = |-40.237| = 40.237

The poll overstated the Republican by 40.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32572, race ID 1516 (538 database).