2010 Governor · CO
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 750 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 12%
D+30.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.05% · Republican 11.14%
D+39.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 12 = 30.00
- Actual margin = 51.052 − 11.142 = 39.910
- Signed miss = 30.00 − (39.910) = -9.910
- Absolute miss = |-9.910| = 9.910
The poll overstated the Republican by 9.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32571, race ID 1279 (538 database).