Skip to content

2010 Governor · CT

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 45%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.21% · Republican 48.95%

R+1.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 45 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.213 − 48.950 = -1.737
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (-1.737) = 5.737
  4. Absolute miss = |5.737| = 5.737

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32567, race ID 1280 (538 database).