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2010 House · VT-1

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 61% · Republican 25%

D+36.0

The certified result

Democrat 64.57% · Republican 32.03%

D+32.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 61 − 25 = 36.00
  2. Actual margin = 64.567 − 32.032 = 32.535
  3. Signed miss = 36.00 − (32.535) = 3.465
  4. Absolute miss = |3.465| = 3.465

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32559, race ID 4863 (538 database).