2010 Senate · VT
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2010-10-12 (21 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 62% · Republican 27%
D+35.0
The certified result
Democrat 64.33% · Republican 30.91%
D+33.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 62 − 27 = 35.00
- Actual margin = 64.326 − 30.912 = 33.414
- Signed miss = 35.00 − (33.414) = 1.586
- Absolute miss = |1.586| = 1.586
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32559, race ID 1541 (538 database).