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2010 Senate · DE

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2010-10-14 (19 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 40%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.61% · Republican 40.03%

D+16.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 40 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.607 − 40.030 = 16.577
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (16.577) = -5.577
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.577| = 5.577

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 32558, race ID 1513 (538 database).